Consumer Climate Improves

Nuremberg, 27 August 2026 – Consumer sentiment in Germany has improved this month. The Consumer Climate has increased by 2.8 points following consumers’ expectations for September and now stands at -26.6 points (previous month revised: -29.4 points). This noticeable rise is attributable not only to a slight decline in the willingness to save but, above all, to a significant increase in income expectations. Economic prospects have also developed somewhat more positively this month, whilst the willingness to buy remains virtually unchanged. This is shown by the latest results of the NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK. 

Economic expectations continue to recover 

Consumers’ economic expectations continue to improve. The indicator has increased slightly by 2.4 points to its current level of -3.9 points. This marks the fourth consecutive increase.

“Although the economic outlook in late summer is still more than six points below the corresponding level of the previous year, the fourth consecutive increase indicates a slight upward trend,” explains Rolf Bürkl, Head of Consumer Climate at NIM. “Signals from the economy are also generally positive. Gross domestic product (GDP) performed better than expected in the second quarter of this year, growing by 0.3 per cent. Business sentiment has also improved slightly: the Ifo Index rose three times in a row between May and July, and the Purchasing Managers’ Index is currently signaling a slight expansion.”

Income expectations rise significantly

In the wake of improving economic prospects, income expectations are continuing their recovery in late summer, following a brief lull last month. The indicator has climbed by 16.2 points and now stands at 1.7 points. This is the highest figure in six months. In February 2026, the figure stood at 6.3 points. 

Willingness to buy remains at rock bottom

By contrast, the willingness to buy is unable to benefit from the rise in income prospects. At -9.8 points, the indicator remains virtually unchanged from the previous month. The willingness to buy has now been hovering at a low around the -10-point mark for about four years and thus appears to be frozen in place. 

Willingness to save shows slight decrease

Whilst the willingness to buy remains at a very low level, the willingness to save is holding at a very high level even in late summer 2026. The savings indicator has fallen slightly by 1.5 points and currently stands at 15.5 points. The willingness to save is thus roughly at the same level as last year.

The following table shows the figures for the individual indicators in August 2026, compared with the previous month and the same month last year:

¹ The consumer climate can be interpreted as a leading indicator of consumer behavior in Germany. Analyses have shown that sentiment is a leading indicator of the actual trend in private consumption. The consumer confidence index – as a leading indicator of the trend in consumption in September 2026 – is calculated from the figures for income expectations, willingness to buy and willingness to save recorded in August 2026.

The following diagram shows the development of the Consumer Climate indicator over the last few years:

Planned publication dates in Q3/Q4 2026 (CET)

• Friday, September 25, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
• Wednesday, October 28, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
• Thursday, November 26, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
• Friday, December 18, 2026, 8:00 a.m.

About the Method

The survey period for the current analysis was from July 2 to July 13. The results are extracted from the “NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK” study and are based on around 2,000 consumer interviews conducted on behalf of the European Commission. The report presents the indicators in the form of graphics accompanied by brief comments. Consumer sentiment refers explicitly to all private consumer spending. However, depending on the definition used, retail accounts for only about 35 percent of private consumer spending.

The three indicators used to calculate the consumer climate indicator:

• Income expectations: Shows how consumers rate the development of their household’s financial situation over the next 12 months.
• Willingness to save: Reflects consumers’ opinion on whether it is currently advisable to save, given the general economic situation.
• Willingness to buy: Shows the extent to which consumers consider it favorable to make major purchases (furniture, electrical/electronic appliances, etc.) given the general economic situation.

Macroeconomic indicators:

• Economic expectations: Determines consumers’ assessment of how the general economic situation in Germany will develop over the next 12 months.
• ·Price expectations: Asks how consumers believe consumer prices will develop over the next 12 months compared to the past 12 months.

Note on the indicators: These are subjective sentiment indicators, not direct behavioral data. Actual behavior (purchases, saving, income) also depends on liquidity, necessity, prices, and individual circumstances.

NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK

The Consumer Climate survey, which is being conducted regularly since 1974 and monthly since 1980, is regarded as an important indicator of German consumer behavior and a guiding light for Germany’s economic development. Since October 2023, the Consumer Climate data collected by GfK has been analyzed and published jointly with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), the founder of GfK. 
As part of a reorganization of responsibilities, starting in April 2026, the NIM took over not only the evaluation and analysis of the Consumer Climate but also all communication related to it. From this point on, the publication is published under the name “NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK” thereby returning organizationally in full to the NIM, which was responsible for the study until 1984 (then known as GfK Verein).

The data will continue to be collected by NIQ/GfK on behalf of the NIM. The methodology, data collection, and analysis remain unchanged.

Media Contact: 

NIM: Sandra Lades, T +49 911 95151 989, sandra.lades@nim.org
 

Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions 

The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is an independent, non-university-affiliated economic research institute. We examine the consumer climate and consumer behavior as a driving force of the economy. Based on academic excellence, we formulate concrete recommendations to help politics, businesses, and society make better decisions.
We finance our research with our own funds.
The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK.
Further information at www.nim.org/en and LinkedIn.

GfK – a NielsenIQ company

For 90 years, clients around the world have trusted us to provide data-driven answers to key questions for their decision-making processes. We support their growth through our comprehensive understanding of buying behavior and the dynamics that influence markets, brands, and media trends. In 2023, industry leaders GfK and NielsenIQ have merged to offer their clients unparalleled global reach. With a holistic view of retail and the most comprehensive consumer insights, provided by forward-looking analytics on state-of-the-art platforms, GfK is driving “Growth from Knowledge.” More information is available at www.nielseniq.com.

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