Consumer Climate: Economic Expectations Rise – But Consumer Climate Isn’t Keeping Pace

Nuremberg, October 28, 2026 – Following last month’s setback, Consumer Climate is currently stabilizing at a low level. The indicator, which reflects consumer expectations for November, declines slightly by 0.2 points to -30.8 points (previous month: -30.6 points). A year ago, the indicator stood at -22.5 points. Consumer Climate thus remains well below the previous year’s level. The trends in the individual indicators paint a mixed picture: While economic expectations are rising for the sixth consecutive month and the willingness to save is decreasing moderately, the willingness to buy continues to decline slightly. Income expectations are also dimming somewhat once again. These are the findings of the NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK. 

Income expectations, which sharply decreased last month, are decreasing only slightly this month despite a rise in the inflation rate. The indicator lost 0.7 points, falling to -15.7 points. While roughly half of April’s slump was recouped in May of this year with the introduction of the gas rebate, there has been no comparable rebound this time: Despite the reintroduction of the gas rebate, income expectations have so far shown only signs of stabilization following the sharp decline in the previous month. 

“Although consumers are increasingly optimistic about economic developments, skepticism continues to prevail when it comes to their own wallets. Growing inflation concerns and subdued income prospects are dampening the willingness to buy, even as the willingness to save is declining moderately,” explains Rolf Bürkl, Head of Consumer Climate at NIM. “Even the gas rebate does not seem to be providing the relief that was hoped for. The hope for an economic upswing is there, but the willingness to buy has not yet followed suit.”

Willingness to save decreases

The willingness to save, which had risen significantly last month, is not continuing to rise this month but is falling by 4.3 points to a level of 17.2 points. While it remains at a high level, it is declining moderately, thereby supporting the Consumer Climate. 

Willingness to buy remains subdued

So far, the willingness to buy has not benefited from the declining willingness to save: it is currently continuing to weaken, albeit only slightly. The indicator has fallen by just over one point and now stands at -11.9 points. Consumer price expectations are likely to play a role here as well. The price indicator is rising and is currently in positive territory. This suggests that consumers are once again anticipating slightly higher inflation. In September, the inflation rate rose to 3.3 percent due to higher fuel prices, marking the highest level since December 2023.

Economic Expectations above its long-term average

Consumer economic expectations are brightening for the sixth consecutive month: At 2.1 points, the indicator is above the zero line for the first time since the outbreak of the Iran War, signaling that consumers are increasingly optimistic about Germany’s future economic development. 

The following table shows the values of the individual indicators in October 2026 compared to the previous month and the previous year:

¹ The Consumer Climate can be interpreted as a leading indicator of consumer behavior in Germany. Analyses have shown that the Consumer Climate is a leading indicator of the actual trend in private consumption. The Consumer Climate Indicator– as a leading indicator of the trend in consumption in November 2026 – is calculated from the figures for income expectations, willingness to buy and willingness to save recorded in October 2026.

The following diagram shows the trend in the Consumer Climate indicator over recent years:

Planned publication dates in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 (CET):

• Thursday, November 26, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
• Friday, December 18, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
• Thursday, January 28, 2027, 8:00 a.m.
• Thursday, February 25, 2027, 8:00 a.m.
• Wednesday, March 24, 2027, 8:00 a.m.

About the Method

The survey period for the current analysis was from 1 to 12 October 2026.. The results are extracted from the “NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK” study and are based on around 2,000 consumer interviews conducted on behalf of the European Commission. The report presents the indicators in graphical form, accompanied by brief comments. Consumer sentiment refers explicitly to all private consumer spending. However, depending on the definition used, retail accounts for only about 35 percent of private consumer spending.

The three indicators used to calculate the consumer climate indicator:

• Income expectations: Shows how consumers rate the development of their household’s financial situation over the next 12 months.
• Willingness to save: Reflects consumers’ opinion on whether it is currently advisable to save, given the general economic situation.
• Willingness to buy: Shows the extent to which consumers consider it favorable to make major purchases (furniture, electrical/electronic appliances, etc.) given the general economic situation.

Macroeconomic indicators:

• Economic expectations: Determines consumers’ assessment of how the general economic situation in Germany will develop over the next 12 months.
• ·Price expectations: Asks how consumers believe consumer prices will develop over the next 12 months compared to the past 12 months.

Note on the indicators: These are subjective sentiment indicators, not direct behavioral data. Actual behavior (purchases, saving, income) also depends on liquidity, necessity, prices, and individual circumstances.

NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK

The Consumer Climate survey, which is being conducted regularly since 1974 and monthly since 1980, is regarded as an important indicator of German consumer behavior and a guiding light for Germany’s economic development. Since October 2023, the Consumer Climate data collected by GfK has been analyzed and published jointly with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), the founder of GfK.

As part of a reorganization of responsibilities, starting in April 2026, the NIM took over not only the evaluation and analysis of the Consumer Climate but also all communication related to it. From this point on, the study is published under the name “NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK” thereby returning fully to the NIM, which was responsible for the study until 1984 (then known as GfK Verein). Since June 2026, NIM has complemented its monthly reporting with the Consumer Climate Socio. Published a few days after the NIM Consumer Climate each month, it provides insights into how consumer sentiment is developing across different sociodemographic groups.
All data will continue to be collected by NIQ/GfK on behalf of the NIM. The methodology, data collection, and analysis remain unchanged.

Media Contact: 

NIM: Sandra Lades, T +49 911 95151 989, sandra.lades@nim.org
 

Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions 

The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is an independent, non-university-affiliated economic research institute. We examine the consumer climate and consumer behavior as a driving force of the economy. Based on academic excellence, we formulate concrete recommendations to help politics, businesses, and society make better decisions.
We finance our research with our own funds.
The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK.
Further information at www.nim.org/en and LinkedIn.

GfK – a NielsenIQ company

For 90 years, clients around the world have trusted us to provide data-driven answers to key questions for their decision-making processes. We support their growth through our comprehensive understanding of buying behavior and the dynamics that influence markets, brands, and media trends. In 2023, industry leaders GfK and NielsenIQ have merged to offer their clients unparalleled global reach. With a holistic view of retail and the most comprehensive consumer insights, provided by forward-looking analytics on state-of-the-art platforms, GfK is driving “Growth from Knowledge.” More information is available at www.nielseniq.com.

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