Consumer Climate in the Summer Slump: Third Decline in a Row

Nuremberg, August 27, 2025 – Consumer sentiment in Germany continued to weaken in August. Income and economic expectations declined significantly, while the willingness to buy and save fell slightly. The consumer climate indicator expects a decline of 1.9 points to -23.6 points in September 2025 compared with the previous month (revised -21.7 points). These are the findings of the GfK Consumer Climate powered by NIM for July, which has been published jointly by NIQ/GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), the founder of GfK, since October 2023.

The sharp decline in income expectations played a major role in this month's decline. By contrast, the propensity to save, which fell by only 0.6 points to 15.8 points, had only a marginal impact on the consumer climate this month.

“With the third consecutive decline, consumer sentiment is now definitely in the summer slump,” explains Rolf Bürkl, Head of Consumer Climate at NIM. “A key reason for the noticeable decline in income expectations is likely to be growing concerns about job security.” The number of registered unemployed has risen recently. It remained just below three million in July, but experts expect this mark to be exceeded in August. Employment pessimism has also risen significantly among consumers this month: the indicator for expectations regarding the development of the number of unemployed has reached its highest level this year. “Growing fear of job losses is causing many consumers to remain cautious about making major purchases. This further dampens hopes for a robust recovery in consumer sentiment before the end of the year,” Bürkl continued.

Income expectations suffer significant setback

After five consecutive increases, consumer income prospects suffered a severe setback in August. The income indicator lost 11.1 points compared to the previous month, falling to 4.1 points, its lowest level since March 2025. At that time, the figure was -3.1 points.

In addition to concerns about possible job losses, ongoing uncertainty about the future development of consumer prices is also likely to be playing a role among consumers. The geopolitical situation and the US government's tariff policy are fueling fears that energy prices, among other things, could rise again. Accordingly, German consumers' inflation expectations rose for the second month in a row in August.

Willingness to buy remains at rock bottom

In view of significantly lower income prospects, the willingness to make purchases also suffered losses this month. However, these were relatively minor. The indicator fell by 0.9 points and thus remained at a low level of -10.1 points. This is the worst figure since February 2025, when -11.1 points were recorded.

The geopolitical situation and fears of inflation are causing continued uncertainty among consumers. This is leading to a lack of planning security and making consumers more cautious, especially when it comes to larger purchases.

Economic expectations decline significantly for the second time in a row

German consumers' economic optimism continues to dwindle. For the second time in a row, the economic indicator has fallen significantly. It currently stands at minus 7.4 points. At 2.7 points, economic sentiment has slipped to its lowest level in six months. In February, it stood at 1.2 points.

This means that consumers' hopes for a recovery of the German economy before the end of this year are likely to have fallen further. Rising unemployment, the somewhat bumpy start of the new federal government, and the uncertain customs policy of the US are not currently creating a mood of optimism among consumers.

Planned publication dates in 2025 (CET):

• Thursday, September 25, 2025, 8 a.m.
• Tuesday, October 28, 2025, 8 a.m.
• Thursday, November 27, 2025, 8 a.m.
• Friday, December 19, 2025, 8 a.m.

About the method

The survey period for the current analysis was from was from July 30 to August 11, 2025. The results are extracted from the “GfK Consumer Climate powered by NIM” study and are based on around 2,000 consumer interviews per month conducted on behalf of the European Commission. The report presents the indicators in the form of graphics accompanied by brief comments. Consumer sentiment refers explicitly to all private consumer spending. Depending on the definition used, however, retail accounts for only around 30 percent of private consumer spending. Services, travel, housing costs, healthcare services, and the wellness sector as a whole account for the rest. Again, this does not apply to retail sales, but instead to total consumer spending. Like all other indicators, willingness to buy is a confidence indicator. It indicates whether consumers currently consider it advisable to make larger purchases. Even if they answer “Yes” to this question, there are two further requirements for making a purchase: The consumer must have both money required for such a large purchase and must also see a need to make this purchase. Furthermore, this only concerns durable consumer goods that also require a larger budget.

GfK Consumer Climate powered by NIM

The GfK Consumer Climate survey, which is being conducted regularly since 1974 and monthly since 1980, is regarded as an important indicator of German consumer behavior and a guiding light for Germany’s economic development. Since October 2023, the Consumer Climate data collected by GfK has been analyzed and published jointly with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), the founder of GfK. By joining forces, it will be possible to invest further in the analysis and development of the Consumer Climate study to gain an even better understanding of the background to changes in consumer confidence.
 

Media Contact: 
NIQ: Corina Kirchner, T +49 911 395 4570, corina.kirchner@nielseniq.com
NIM: Sandra Lades, T +49 911 95151 989, sandra.lades@nim.org

GfK – a NielsenIQ company

For 90 years, clients around the world have trusted us to provide data-driven answers to key questions for their decision-making processes. We support their growth through our comprehensive understanding of buying behavior and the dynamics that influence markets, brands, and media trends. In 2023, industry leaders GfK and NielsenIQ have merged to offer their clients unparalleled global reach. With a holistic view of retail and the most comprehensive consumer insights, provided by forward-looking analytics on state-of-the-art platforms, GfK is driving “Growth from Knowledge.” More information is available at www.nielseniq.com.

About NIQ

NielsenIQ (NIQ) is a leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. NIQ combined with GfK in 2023, bringing together two industry leaders with unparalleled global reach. Our global reach spans over 90 countries covering approximately 85 percent of the world’s population and more than $ 7.2 trillion in global consumer spend. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights—delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms—NIQ delivers the Full View™.    

For more information, please visit www.niq.com 

Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions e. V.

The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is a non-profit research institute at the interface between science and practice. The NIM investigates how consumer decisions change as a result of new technologies, social trends or the application of behavioral science and what micro- and macroeconomic effects this has on the market and society. A better understanding of consumer decisions and their effects helps society, companies, politicians and consumers to make better decisions in the interests of a socio-ecological market economy and "prosperity for all".

The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK. 
Further information at www.nim.org/en and LinkedIn.

For questions and further information on the press release, please contact:

Sandra Lades (legally responsible for content according to the German press laws)
Head of Communication & Events
Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen e. V.
Founder of GfK
Steinstr. 21 / 90419 Nuremberg / Germany
T: +49 911 951519-89
E:  sandra.lades@nim.org