Consumer Climate in Decline

Nuremberg, April 27, 2026: Consumer sentiment is once again declining as a result of the war in Iran: According to consumer expectations for May 2026, the Consumer Climate indicator has fallen even more significantly than in the previous month. It now stands at -33.3 points, marking a further decrease of 5.2 points compared to the previous month (revised to -28.1 points). Income expectations are decreasing sharply, and the willingness to buy is also noticeably more pessimistic. The willingness to save, meanwhile, has declined slightly but remains at a high level. This is shown by the latest results of the NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK.

Drop in income expectations

Consumer income expectations, which already fell significantly last month, decreased by a further 18.1 points in April and now stand at -24.4 points. As last month, cooling economic expectations and rising price expectations are playing an important role in this development. A long-term analysis by the NIM shows that income expectations are closely linked to consumers’ inflation expectations. The effects between consumers’ inflation expectations and their willingness to buy or their willingness to save tend to be slightly delayed and play a smaller role. [1]

Willingness to buy decreases, willingness to save remains virtually unchanged

This month, the willingness to buy experiences a decrease of 3.5 points to -14.4 points. This marks a two-year low in a long-term comparison.
The willingness to save, which indicates whether people currently consider it to be a good moment to save given the general economic situation, shows a slight decrease and, with a minus of 2.4 points, remains at a high level (16.1 points).

“Consumer sentiment has declined even more sharply than in the previous month and now stands at -33.3 points. This is the lowest level since February 2023,” explains Rolf Bürkl, Head of Consumer Climate at NIM. “Income expectations are literally collapsing because of rising inflation. And in this context, people also currently believe that the timing for major purchases is less favorable.”

The inflation rate in Germany rose from 1.9 percent to 2.7 percent in March due to rising energy prices caused by the war in Iran, leading the majority of consumers to once again expect price increases. Although the indicator for price expectations rose somewhat less sharply in April than in March—likely due to falling prices at the filling stations, the indicator’s level has risen compared to the beginning of the year.

Economic expectations are darkening again

In addition, the war in Iran continues to dampen economic prospects: Respondents view the development of the German economy over the next 12 months less positively than in the previous month. The indicator drops another 6.8 points to -13.7. This is a level similar to that recorded in April 2022 at the start of the war in Ukraine.
Here, consumer concerns are growing that the tentative upturn in the German economy could suffer a serious setback, especially if the conflict persists and government measures fail to take effect.

Planned publication dates in Q1/Q2 2026 (CET):

• Friday, May 22, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
• Thursday, June 25, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
• Friday, July 24, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
• Thursday, August 27, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
• Friday, September 25, 2026, 8:00 a.m.

About the method

The survey period for the current analysis was from was from 2 to 13 April 2026.
The results are extracted from the “NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK” study and are based on around 2,000 consumer interviews conducted on behalf of the European Commission. The report presents the indicators in the form of graphics accompanied by brief comments. Consumer sentiment refers explicitly to all private consumer spending. Depending on the definition used, however, retail accounts for only around 30 percent of private consumer spending. Services, travel, housing costs, healthcare services, and the wellness sector as a whole account for the rest. Again, this does not apply to retail sales, but instead to total consumer spending. Like all other indicators, willingness to buy is a confidence indicator. It indicates whether consumers currently consider it advisable to make larger purchases. Even if they answer “Yes” to this question, there are two further requirements for making a purchase: The consumer must have both money required for such a large purchase and must also see a need to make this purchase. Furthermore, this only concerns durable consumer goods that also require a larger budget.

NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK

The GfK Consumer Climate survey, which is being conducted regularly since 1974 and monthly since 1980, is regarded as an important indicator of German consumer behavior and a guiding light for Germany’s economic development. Since October 2023, the Consumer Climate data collected by GfK has been analyzed and published jointly with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), the founder of GfK.

Media Contact: 

 Sandra Lades, T +49 911 95151 989, sandra.lades@nim.org

Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions e. V.

The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is an independent, non-university-affiliated economic research institute. We examine the consumer climate and consumer behavior as a driving force of the economy. Based on academic excellence, we formulate concrete recommendations to help politics, businesses, and society make better decisions.
We finance our research with our own funds.
The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK. 
Further information at www.nim.org/en and LinkedIn.

GfK – a NielsenIQ company

For 90 years, clients around the world have trusted us to provide data-driven answers to key questions for their decision-making processes. We support their growth through our comprehensive understanding of buying behavior and the dynamics that influence markets, brands, and media trends. In 2023, industry leaders GfK and NielsenIQ have merged to offer their clients unparalleled global reach. With a holistic view of retail and the most comprehensive consumer insights, provided by forward-looking analytics on state-of-the-art platforms, GfK is driving “Growth from Knowledge.” More information is available at www.nielseniq.com.

Sandra Lades (legally responsible for content according to the German press laws)
Head of Communication & Events
Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen e. V.
Founder of GfK
Steinstr. 21 / 90419 Nuremberg / Germany
T: +49 911 951519-89
E: sandra.lades@nim.org

[1] Reversing Effects Between Inflation Expectations and Consumer Intentions. Two decades of survey evidence from Germany. NIM Research Report.