Consumer Climate: The Downward Trend Has Been Stopped – for Now

Nuremberg, 22 May 2026 – Consumer Climate has not continued to fall this month but has recovered moderately by 3.3 points. Nevertheless, the indicator based on consumer expectations for June stands at -29.8 points (previous month revised: -33.1 points) and is therefore comparatively low. Income expectations, which had deteriorated significantly at the start of the war in Iran, are currently noticeably more positive than in April. Despite a slight increase, the willingness to buy remains subdued and the willingness to save is once again decreasing slightly. This is shown by the latest results of the NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK.

Significant recovery in income expectations

Consumer income expectations, which had recently fallen sharply, have recovered noticeably this month and now stand at -13.0 points. This represents an increase of 11.4 points compared to the previous month. Since the conflict in the Middle East has not escalated further so far, some of the geopolitical uncertainty appears to have been factored into consumer expectations. At the same time, political signals point to possible relief measures. This is likely to have contributed to the improvement in private households’ income expectations. Overall, however, the indicator remains clearly in the pessimistic range compared to pre-crisis levels.

“Consumer Climate has, at least for the moment, ended its downward trend and is recovering somewhat this month,” explains Rolf Bürkl, Head of Consumer Climate at NIM. “In addition to the significantly improved income outlook, a decreasing willingness to save and a slightly increasing willingness to buy are currently supporting the Consumer Climate. However, the negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East remains largely unchanged and is still visible in the Consumer Climate.”

Willingness to buy remains subdued

The willingness to buy has improved by 1.2 points compared to previous month and now stands at -13.2 points. The indicator, which has been negative for some time now, therefore remains gloomy and indicates that consumers do not think that it is advisable to make major purchases.

Willingness to save continues to decrease slightly

The willingness to save, which indicates whether people currently consider saving advisable under general economic conditions, continues to decrease this month: following a drop of 2.2 points, it now stands at 13.9 points. This marks the third consecutive drop. In a long-term comparison, this figure remains very high, though slightly lower than at the beginning of the year.

Economic expectations show no further weakening
Inflation concerns ease slightly

Consumers’ economic expectations improved slightly this month by 2.5 points to -11.2 points. However, the majority of consumers still expect the economic situation to deteriorate over the next twelve months. Against the backdrop of growth forecasts that have recently been revised downward several times, the recovery in economic expectations can nevertheless be seen as a positive sign. This is likely linked to the significant increase in income expectations. 

Similarly, the majority of consumers expect prices to rise over the next 12 months, but here too the indicator has recently fallen. Compared to the previous month, it has fallen by 5.4 points and stands at -0.4 points. This decrease is likely due to the reduction in the energy tax on diesel and gasoline, as consumers are highly sensitive to these price drops. 

At the same time, the inflation rate in Germany rose to 2.9 percent in April, one percentage point higher than the figure in February of this year.

Planned publication dates in Q1/Q2 2026 (CET):

• Thursday, June 25, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
• Friday, July 24, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
• Thursday, August 27, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
• Friday, September 25, 2026, 8:00 a.m.

About the Method

The survey period for the current analysis was from April 30 to May 11, 2026. The results are extracted from the “NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK” study and are based on around 2,000 consumer interviews conducted on behalf of the European Commission. The report presents the indicators in the form of graphics accompanied by brief comments. Consumer sentiment refers explicitly to all private consumer spending. However, depending on the definition used, retail accounts for only about 35 percent of private consumer spending.

The three indicators used to calculate the consumer climate indicator:

• Income expectations: Shows how consumers rate the development of their household’s financial situation over the next 12 months.
• Willingness to save: Reflects consumers’ opinion on whether it is currently advisable to save, given the general economic situation.
• Willingness to buy: Shows the extent to which consumers consider it favorable to make major purchases (furniture, electrical/electronic appliances, etc.) given the general economic situation.

Macroeconomic indicators:

• Economic expectations: Determines consumers’ assessment of how the general economic situation in Germany will develop over the next 12 months.
• ·Price expectations: Asks how consumers believe consumer prices will develop over the next 12 months compared to the past 12 months.

Note on the indicators: These are subjective sentiment indicators, not direct behavioral data. Actual behavior (purchases, saving, income) also depends on liquidity, necessity, prices, and individual circumstances.

NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK

The Consumer Climate survey, which is being conducted regularly since 1974 and monthly since 1980, is regarded as an important indicator of German consumer behavior and a guiding light for Germany’s economic development. Since October 2023, the Consumer Climate data collected by GfK has been analyzed and published jointly with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), the founder of GfK. 
As part of a reorganization of responsibilities, starting in April 2026, the NIM took over not only the evaluation and analysis of the Consumer Climate but also all communication related to it. From this point on, the publication is published under the name “NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK” thereby returning organizationally in full to the NIM, which was responsible for the study until 1984 (then known as GfK Verein).

The data will continue to be collected by NIQ/GfK on behalf of the NIM. The methodology, data collection, and analysis remain unchanged.

Media Contact: 

NIM: Sandra Lades, T +49 911 95151 989, sandra.lades@nim.org
 

Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions 

The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is an independent, non-university-affiliated economic research institute. We examine the consumer climate and consumer behavior as a driving force of the economy. Based on academic excellence, we formulate concrete recommendations to help politics, businesses, and society make better decisions.
We finance our research with our own funds.
The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK.
Further information at www.nim.org/en and LinkedIn.

GfK – a NielsenIQ company

For 90 years, clients around the world have trusted us to provide data-driven answers to key questions for their decision-making processes. We support their growth through our comprehensive understanding of buying behavior and the dynamics that influence markets, brands, and media trends. In 2023, industry leaders GfK and NielsenIQ have merged to offer their clients unparalleled global reach. With a holistic view of retail and the most comprehensive consumer insights, provided by forward-looking analytics on state-of-the-art platforms, GfK is driving “Growth from Knowledge.” More information is available at www.nielseniq.com.

NielsenIQ (NYSE: NIQ) is a leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete and trusted understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. By combining an unmatched global data footprint and granular consumer and retail measurement with decades of AI modeling expertise, NIQ builds decision systems that help companies turn complex data into confident action. With operations in more than 90 countries, NIQ covers approximately 82% of the world’s population and more than $7.4 trillion in global consumer spend. Through cloud-based platforms, advanced analytics and AI-driven insights, NIQ delivers The Full View™—helping brands and retailers understand what consumers buy, why they buy it, and what to do next.  
For more information, please visit www.niq.com

Sandra Lades (legally responsible for content according to the German press laws)
Head of Communication & Events
Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen e. V.
Founder of GfK
Steinstr. 21 / 90419 Nuremberg / Germany
T: +49 911 951519-89
E: sandra.lades@nim.org