Model-assisted analysis, simulation and forecasting with consumer panel data: The GfK Brand Simulator.

Keywords: Marketing mix model, consumer panel, forecast, simulation

Abstract:

Marketing mix models model a relationship between marketing mix variables (e.g. price, distribution, advertising expenditure) and target or outcome variables (e.g. market share) that is as close to reality as possible. The paper first discusses existing marketing mix models before presenting a new model based on scanner data from a consumer panel. The data input and the model structure are described, the model quality is discussed and some possible applications are shown. Finally, the paper shows the limitations of the model and possible further developments.

The paper is available in German only.