Consumer Climate Remains Weak but Stable

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2026 June PR: Consumer Climate Remains Weak but Stable

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2026-06-25

Slight Recovery in Income Expectations

Consumer income expectations, which improved significantly last month, rose only slightly this month. The indicator rose by 0.8 points to -12.2. Overall, consumers remain less optimistic about their future financial situation than they were before the start of the war in Iran.

“Consumer Climate is currently stabilizing at a low level,” explains Rolf Bürkl, Head of Consumer Climate at NIM. “Income expectations are recovering only slightly. The willingness to buy remains in the pessimistic range, and the willingness to save is not decreasing either. There are therefore no signs yet of a return toward pre-war levels, even though the peace negotiations and the decrease in crude oil prices are easing consumers’ inflation concerns and economic expectations are brightening slightly again.”

Willingness to buy remains low

The willingness to buy has decreased slightly by 0.2 points compared to last month, bringing the indicator to -13.4 points. From the consumers' perspective, the timing for making major purchases therefore remains rather unfavorable

Willingness to save stays high

The willingness to save—which indicates whether people currently consider it advisable to save given the general economic situation—remains unchanged. As in June 2025 and the previous month, the indicator stands at 13.9 points. The slight decrease in the willingness to save observed since the beginning of the year has thus come to a halt for the time being. In a long-term comparison, the current value is still very high.

Economic expectations improve and inflation concerns ease

Consumer economic expectations have improved again this month. The indicator rose by 2.5 points to -8.7 points. Although the majority of consumers still expect the economic situation to worsen over the next twelve months, the pessimism seems to be easing.

Price expectations are also showing a positive trend: they decreased in June for the second consecutive month. According to the survey, the majority of consumers is therefore less pessimistic about price developments over the next 12 months. Compared to the previous month, the indicator fell by 2.5 points to stand at -2.9 points. This decrease is likely attributable to the fuel rebate, which expires at the end of the month.

The trend in these indicators may primarily reflect the recent negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. The increased expectations resulting from these talks that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East will ease have contributed to a cooling of tensions on the international energy markets.

Planned publication dates in Q3/Q4 2026 (CET):

Friday, July 24, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
Thursday, August 27, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
Friday, July 24, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
Thursday, August 27, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
Friday, September 25, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
Wednesday, October 28, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
Thursday, November 26, 2026, 8:00 a.m.
Friday, December 18, 2026, 8:00 a.m.

About the Method

The survey period for the current analysis was from June 4 to June 15, 2026. The results are extracted from the “NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK” study and are based on around 2,000 consumer interviews conducted on behalf of the European Commission. The report presents the indicators in the form of graphics accompanied by brief comments. Consumer sentiment refers explicitly to all private consumer spending. However, depending on the definition used, retail accounts for only about 35 percent of private consumer spending.

The three indicators used to calculate the consumer climate indicator:

Income expectations: Shows how consumers rate the development of their household’s financial situation over the next 12 months.
Willingness to save: Reflects consumers’ opinion on whether it is currently advisable to save, given the general economic situation.
Willingness to buy: Shows the extent to which consumers consider it favorable to make major purchases (furniture, electrical/electronic appliances, etc.) given the general economic situation.

Macroeconomic indicators:

Economic expectations: Determines consumers’ assessment of how the general economic situation in Germany will develop over the next 12 months.
·Price expectations: Asks how consumers believe consumer prices will develop over the next 12 months compared to the past 12 months.

Note on the indicators: These are subjective sentiment indicators, not direct behavioral data. Actual behavior (purchases, saving, income) also depends on liquidity, necessity, prices, and individual circumstances.

NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK

The Consumer Climate survey, which is being conducted regularly since 1974 and monthly since 1980, is regarded as an important indicator of German consumer behavior and a guiding light for Germany’s economic development. Since October 2023, the Consumer Climate data collected by GfK has been analyzed and published jointly with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), the founder of GfK.
As part of a reorganization of responsibilities, starting in April 2026, the NIM took over not only the evaluation and analysis of the Consumer Climate but also all communication related to it. From this point on, the publication is published under the name “NIM Consumer Climate powered by GfK” thereby returning organizationally in full to the NIM, which was responsible for the study until 1984 (then known as GfK Verein).

The data will continue to be collected by NIQ/GfK on behalf of the NIM. The methodology, data collection, and analysis remain unchanged.

Media Contact:

NIM: Sandra Lades, T +49 911 95151 989, sandra.lades@nim.org

Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions

The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) is an independent, non-university-affiliated economic research institute. We examine the consumer climate and consumer behavior as a driving force of the economy. Based on academic excellence, we formulate concrete recommendations to help politics, businesses, and society make better decisions.
We finance our research with our own funds.
The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions is the founder of GfK.
Further information at www.nim.org/en and LinkedIn.

GfK – a NielsenIQ company

For 90 years, clients around the world have trusted us to provide data-driven answers to key questions for their decision-making processes. We support their growth through our comprehensive understanding of buying behavior and the dynamics that influence markets, brands, and media trends. In 2023, industry leaders GfK and NielsenIQ have merged to offer their clients unparalleled global reach. With a holistic view of retail and the most comprehensive consumer insights, provided by forward-looking analytics on state-of-the-art platforms, GfK is driving “Growth from Knowledge.” More information is available at www.nielseniq.com.

NielsenIQ (NYSE: NIQ) is a leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete and trusted understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. By combining an unmatched global data footprint and granular consumer and retail measurement with decades of AI modeling expertise, NIQ builds decision systems that help companies turn complex data into confident action. With operations in more than 90 countries, NIQ covers approximately 82% of the world’s population and more than $7.4 trillion in global consumer spend. Through cloud-based platforms, advanced analytics and AI-driven insights, NIQ delivers The Full View™—helping brands and retailers understand what consumers buy, why they buy it, and what to do next.
For more information, please visit www.niq.com

Sandra Lades (legally responsible for content according to the German press laws)
Head of Communication & Events
Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen e. V.
Founder of GfK
Steinstr. 21 / 90419 Nuremberg / Germany
T: +49 911 951519-89
E: sandra.lades@nim.org

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