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Gangl, K., & Biró, T. (2026). The Iran War and Its Politico-Economic Repercussions in Germany. The consumer perspective. NIMpulse 17.
2026
Tobias Biró
The Iran War and Its Politico-Economic Repercussions in Germany
Background to the study
The military conflict between Israel/the United States and Iran has fundamentally altered the global political landscape—with immediate consequences for Europe. In particular, rising oil and gas prices are straining household budgets and have quickly pushed up the cost of gasoline, diesel, and other energy sources. If hostilities persist, higher producer prices could, over time, trigger a broad wave of inflation.
How do people in Germany assess this war? Which economic repercussions do they consider likely? And above all, how do war and rising energy prices manifest themselves in consumer behavior in the short term?
This study by the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) provides answers to these questions. The analysis draws on a nationally representative survey of adults in Germany conducted in March 2026. The results not only take the pulse of a country in crisis; they also map citizens’ expectations for future government action.
Overall, how do people in Germany assess the military actions taken by the United States and Israel against Iran?
People in Germany are pessimistic about the world’s security outlook. 74% of respondents believe the world will become less secure in the coming years. Younger people, higher earners, and households with younger children are comparatively more optimistic. Those who view the world’s trajectory positively tend, on balance, to consider the actions of Israel and the United States to be right. Otherwise, the operation in Iran is rejected by a majority—especially among respondents in the new federal states (eastern Germany).
What consequences of the conflict are expected, and have people changed their purchasing behavior?
People in Germany anticipate a wide range of repercussions from the Iran war. Most respondents (62%) consider it likely that the conflict will push prices up more strongly. 60% expect persistently higher prices at the pump and for heating oil and gas. 54% think the Gulf region will not be a safe travel destination for an extended period. Only minorities expect stronger NATO involvement or rising unemployment.
Although people in Germany expect a range of economic repercussions from the Iran war, only a few have changed their personal purchasing behavior so far. Those who report already reacting as consumers are paying closer attention to prices (33%). 19% say they are monitoring the situation for now; a further 17% report that they do not plan to change their purchasing behavior. Only 8% currently consider a stronger shift towards electrically powered cars or heating systems an option.
Expectations Toward Government and Energy Policy
Respondents do expect the state to act to lower energy prices: Altogether, 82% choose at least one government measure, and only 6% say the state should not intervene. For most respondents (42%), the preferred option would be to cut taxes on energy. 40% could imagine a government‑set price cap on energy. Measures such as direct payments to those in need (15%) enjoy less support.
When asked about ways to meet Germany’s energy needs, most respondents (60%) favor further expansion of renewables. A majority (53%) also support using domestic gas resources in the North Sea. Reactivating nuclear energy and exploiting gas resources via fracking attract roughly as many supporters as opponents. Gas from Russia is clearly rejected.
Calls for a return to nuclear power in Germany currently come especially from men (46%), older people (46%), and residents of the new federal states (48%). Among women (33%), younger people (35%) and residents of the old federal states (37%), nuclear power is much less desirable. Resuming imports of gas from Russia is seen as a good option particularly by younger respondents (36%) and residents of the new federal states (39%).
KEY INSIGHTS
People in Germany view the security and economic outlook in the wake of the Iran war with concern. A large majority expect rising prices, not only for energy but also in everyday life. Notably, this assessment was voiced shortly after the war began, at a time when many professional observers were still counseling calm. There are now signs that price increases will in fact be broader, which suggests that the public has a remarkably keen sense for crises and their consequences.
Despite these gloomy expectations, the public has so far barely adjusted its purchasing behavior. Many people continue to watch and wait, and those who have reacted are doing so mainly by becoming more price aware. A more active shift towards technologies that do not rely on fossil fuels is hardly visible at present. Many consumers apparently do not see themselves as primarily responsible.
Instead, people expect determined action from the state. A large majority support accelerating the expansion of renewable energy. There is also support for tapping gas in the North Sea and, to a lesser extent, for a return to nuclear power or the use of fracking. At the same time, many favor state interventions to lower energy prices, including tax relief, price caps, and windfall taxes.
Taken together, the public appears to be looking for pragmatic solutions in the face of rising energy costs.
Authors
- PD Dr. Katharina Gangl, Director Studies, NIM, katharina.gangl@nim.org
- Tobias Biró, Head of Research Communication, NIM, tobias.biro@nim.org
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